张志华,李骥,Lisa J. Graumlich,Paul R. Sheppard. 1998. 用树轮密度及宽度资料重建新疆吉木萨尔县的季节降水和最高温度[J]. 气象学报, 56(1):77-86, doi:10.11676/qxxb1998.007
用树轮密度及宽度资料重建新疆吉木萨尔县的季节降水和最高温度
PRECIPITATION AND AVERAGE MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE JIMUSARE, XINJIANG AS RECONSTRUCTED FROM TREE DENSITY AND TREE WIDTHS
投稿时间:1996-07-29  修订日期:1996-09-10
DOI:10.11676/qxxb1998.007
中文关键词:  吉木萨尔  年轮密度  年轮宽度  响应函数  气候重建
英文关键词:Jimusaer  Tree-ring densiey  Tree-ring widths  Response function  Reconstruction
基金项目:国家气象局科教司资助
作者单位
张志华 国家气候中心开放实验室, 北京, 100081 
李骥 国家气候中心开放实验室, 北京, 100081 
Lisa J. Graumlich Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA 
Paul R. Sheppard Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA 
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中文摘要:
      依据新疆吉木萨尔县天山云杉树木年轮宽度、最大密度和最小密度标准化年表,讨论了晚材宽度、最大密度和最小密度,与月平均最高温度和降水的响应函数基本特征,采用逐步回归方法,确定了利用晚材宽度指数、最大密度指数和最小密度指数重建该地6~9月份降水,以及利用最大密度指数和最小密度指数重建该地4~9月份平均最高温度。重建结果可靠且与实际情况较为一致。分析发现,该地区在过去150年中,月平均最高温度和降水有明显的阶段性变化。
英文摘要:
      In this paper,the Characteristics of response function of tree ring width and tree ring density with monthly precipitation and average monthly high temperature were analyzed.The method of stepwise regression analysis was used to selecttree ring factors which were correlated better with climate factors.As a result,precipitation reconstructions are derived using stepwise regression models that predict precipitation (6~9) as a function of latewood width chronologies,maximum density and minimum density,temperature reconstructions are also derived using stepwise regression models that predict average monthly high temperature (4~9).The reconstructions indicate that there are notable periodic changes of precipitation (6~9) and average monthly high temperature (4~9) over the past 150 years in the Jimusaerarea.The resultare coincided well with do cumentrecords.
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