汤剑平,苏炳凯,赵鸣,赵得明. 2004. 东亚区域气候变化的长期数值模拟试验[J]. 气象学报, 62(6):752-763, doi:10.11676/qxxb2004.071
东亚区域气候变化的长期数值模拟试验
LONG TERM CLIMATE CHANGE NUMERICAL SIMULATION IN EAST ASIA
投稿时间:2003-12-23  修订日期:2004-03-01
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2004.071
中文关键词:  东亚区域  气候变化  数值模拟
英文关键词:East Asia  Climate change  Numerical simulation
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展规划(973)项目G1999043400
作者单位
汤剑平 南京大学中尺度灾害性天气教育部重点实验室, 南京 210093 
苏炳凯 南京大学中尺度灾害性天气教育部重点实验室, 南京 210093 
赵鸣 南京大学中尺度灾害性天气教育部重点实验室, 南京 210093 
赵得明 南京大学中尺度灾害性天气教育部重点实验室, 南京 210093 
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中文摘要:
      文中利用NCAR的中尺度模式MM5V3对东亚地区进行了10a的长期积分模拟试验,并着重对冬、夏两季东亚区域气候变化特征进行了分析。分析结果表明:(1)模式能够合理地模拟出10a冬、夏平均的区域气候特征。模拟的10a冬季平均降水的分布和强度与实际比较一致,对夏季降水分布特征的模拟也比较合理,但模拟的夏季华北降水偏多。模式对冬季平均场的模拟要优于对夏季的模拟;(2)模式对降水、地面气温年际变率的模拟较为合理,模拟的中高层环流、温度场等要素的距平相关系数都比较高;(3)模式对不同ElNino年对东亚区域气候变化影响的模拟能力有所不同,模拟的1992,1995年的结果比较合理,但对1998年模拟得不理想;(4)MM5V3模式具备一定的区域气候模拟能力。
英文摘要:
      A 10-year regional climate simulation was performed using the fifth-generation PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) driven by large-scale conditions of the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses.Winter and summer mean regional climate features were examined bet ween simulation and observation.The results showed that:(1) the model could well simulate the 10-yr winter and summer mean circulation,temperature and moisture transfer at middle and low levels.The simulated winter and summer meansea level pressure agreed with the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data.The model could well simulate the distribution and intensity of winter mean precipitation rates,it also simulated the distribution of summer mean precipitation rates,but it overest imated the summer mean pre-cipitation over North China.The model's ability to simulate the regional climate change in winter was prior to that in summer.(2) the model could simulate the inter-annual variation of seasonal precipitation and surface air temperature.The anomaly correlation coefficients of geopotential height and temperature at low and high levels between simulation and observation were high.(3) the model showed different ability to simulate the regional climate change associated with the El Nino events.It well simulated the anomaly of summer mean precipitation in 1992 and 1995,but could not simulate that in 1998 (4).The MM5V3 had the ability to simulate the regional climate change,and could beused for long term regional climate simulation.
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