黄燕燕,钱永甫,万齐林. 2006. 热带副热带高度异常对长江流域和华北旱涝影响的数值模拟与分析[J]. 气象学报, 64(2):194-204, doi:10.11676/qxxb2006.019
热带副热带高度异常对长江流域和华北旱涝影响的数值模拟与分析
SIMULATION AND ANALYSIS ABOUT THE EFFECTS OF GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT ANOMALY IN TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL REGION ON DROUGHTS OR FLOODS IN THE YANGTZE RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CHINA
投稿时间:2005-03-07  修订日期:2005-12-20
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2006.019
中文关键词:  热带副热带高度异常,南亚高压,长江流域旱涝,华北旱涝,数值模拟与分析
英文关键词:Geopotential height anomalies, Tropical and subtropical region, Sou th Asian High, Droughts and floods, Yangtze River Valley, North China, Simulat ion and analysis.
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展规划项目“我国重大气候灾害的形成机理和预测理论研究 ”(1998040900)和国家自然科学基金“南亚高压和亚洲季风相互作用及其机制研究”(40175021)
作者单位
黄燕燕 中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所广州 510080 南京大学大气科学系南京 210093 
钱永甫 南京大学大气科学系南京 210093 
万齐林 中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所广州 510080 
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中文摘要:
      根据诊断分析的结论——前期南亚高压的异常增强或者减弱、热带、副热带地区100 hPa高 度 的异常增高或者降低、热带西风的异常增强或者减弱,对长江流域和华北地区夏季的降水异 常具有预示作用,设计了一系列的数值试验加以模拟,包括控制试验、敏感试验(100 hPa 热带副热带地区叠加了高度、风异常)和4组合成试验(EPR CF,EPR-CD,EPR HF,EPR HD )。合成试验模拟结果表明,前期热带副热带高度异常分布,能够再现长江流域、华北旱涝情况。前期南亚高压,热带副热带高度、风异常对长江流域和华北地区夏季降水的异常有预示作用。100 hPa叠加高度、风异常的敏感试验结果表明:前期南亚高压、热带副热带地区100 h Pa高度场和环流场的异常不仅可以预示、事实上能够引起长江流域和华北夏季降水的异常— —前期南亚高压异常增强、热带副热带地区100 hPa高度场异常增高、西风异常增强,易引起长江流域降水偏多、华北降水偏少;反之,则容易引起长江流域降水偏少、华北降水偏多。
英文摘要:
      Previous study comes to the conclusion: based on the anomalies of t he South Asi an High (SAH), anomaly of 100hPa geopotential height and 100hPa circulation over tropical and subtropical region in previous year, we can predict precipitation anomaly in the Yangtze River Valley and North China. To test its validity, a ser ies of experiments have been designed and operated. The experiments include cont rolled experiment, sensible experiment (which has added anomalies into 100hPa geopotential height and wind field) and four composite experiments. Experiments ba sed on the composed initial field such as EPR CF, EPRCD, EPRHF, and EPRHD , canreproduce the floods or droughts in the Yangtze River Valley and North China. It suggests that anomalies of South Asian High, 100hPa geopotential height and c irculation over tropical and subtropical region can probably imply summer precip itation anomalies in the two regions. Sensible experiment results show that anom alies of the SAH, 100hPa geopotential height and wind field in previous period i s a signal of floods or droughts the following summer in the Yangtze River Valle y and North China. And it is also one of the factors that have impact on summer precipitation anomaly in the two regions. Positive anomaly of 100hPa geopotentia l height and the anomalous intensifying of the SAH and southwest flow will induc e floods in the Yangtze River Valley and droughts in North China; while negative anomaly of 100hPa geopotential height and anomalous weakening of the SAH and so uthwest flow will induce droughts in the Yangtze River Valley and floods in Nort h China.
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