赵芳芳, 徐宗学. 2006. 黄河兰州以上气候要素长期变化趋势和突变特征分析[J]. 气象学报, 64(2):246-256, doi:10.11676/qxxb2006.025
黄河兰州以上气候要素长期变化趋势和突变特征分析
LONG-TERM TREND AND JUMP CHANGE FOR MAJOR CLIMATE PROCESSES OVER THE UPPER YELLOW RIVER BASIN
投稿时间:2005-05-19  修订日期:2005-09-10
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2006.025
中文关键词:  气候变化,突变,黄河流域,兰州
英文关键词:Climate Change, Trend, Jump, Yellow River.
基金项目:北京师范大学“京师学者”特聘教授启动经费和国家重点基础研究黄河“973”项目(1999043601)
作者单位
赵芳芳 北京师范大学 水科学研究院 教育部水沙科学重点实验室, 北京100875 
徐宗学 北京师范大学 水科学研究院 教育部水沙科学重点实验室, 北京100875 
摘要点击次数: 2094
全文下载次数: 3357
中文摘要:
      采用1960—2001年黄河流域兰州以上地区23个气象台站的气温、降水、日照时数和蒸发量4个气候要素的资料,分析了42年来兰州以上地区的气候变化和发展趋势。用非参数统计检验方法(Mann-Kendall法)分析了气候变化的长期变化趋势。结果表明,42年来全区平均变暖0.76℃,降水量、日照时数和蒸发量平均减少了17.89 mm ,125.6 h和161.3 mm;用距平曲线法分析了气候变化的阶段性特征;用滑动T检验法(MTT法)、Yamamoto法和Mann-Kendall法对5年滑动平均的区域季节和年时间序列进行突变检测,讨论了黄河流域兰州以上地区的气候变化问题。MTT法的检测结果表明,气温、降水量和日照时数分别在20世纪80年代的末期、中期和初期发生了突变,蒸发量除了发生在80年代的突变外,90年代也有一次超过0.01显著性水平的突变;Yamamoto法检测结果表明,20世纪80年代的气候突变最为明显,1981年春季蒸发量和1985年的年气温均出现了强突变,年蒸发量突变的S/N值的位相明显提前于其他3个气候要素突变S/N值的位相;Mann-Kendall法检测结果表明,各气候要素年和季的突变年份中,气温主要发生在20世纪90年代,蒸发量主要发生在20世纪60年代,日照时数主要发生在20世纪80年代。这一事实也说明检测方法不同,评价结果会存在一定差异。
英文摘要:
      On the basis of the mean air temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration and evaportranspiration from 23 meteorological stations in the upper Yellow River basin from 1960 to 2001, the feasibility of using hypothesis test techniques to identify the long-term trend for major climatic variables has been investigated. Parametric test were limited by the assumptions such as the normality and constant variance of the error terms. Nonparametric tests did not have these additional assumptions and were better adapted to the trend test for hydro meteorological time series. The possible trends of annual and monthly climatic time series are detected by using a non-parametric method and the jumps have been examined in terms of 5 -year moving averaged seasonal and annual series by using moving t-test (MTT) method, Yamamoto method and Mann-Kendall method. The results showed that the annual mean temperature has increased by 0.8 ℃ in the upper Yellow River basin during the last 42 years. The warmest center was located in the northern part of the basin. The nonlinear tendency for annual precipitation was negative during the same period. The declining center in annual precipitation was located in the eastern part and the center of the basin. The variation of annual precipitation in the upper Yellow River basin during the last 42 years exhibited an increasing tendency from 1972 to 1989 and a decreasing tendency from 1990 to 2001. The nonlinear tendency for annual sunshine duration and evaportranspiration were negative, too. They have decreased by 125.6 h and 161.3 mm during the last 42 years, respectively. The test for jumps by using MTT method shows that an abrupt warming occurred in the late 1980s. An abrupt change of the annual mean precipitation occurred in the mid 1980s and an abrupt change of the mean sunshine duration took place in the early 1980s. For the annual mean evaportranspiration, two abrupt changes took place in the 1980s and the early 1990s. The test results of the Yamamoto method show that the climate jumps are mostly occurred in the 1980s, and two acute jumps were tested for the spring evaportranspiration in 1981 and for the annual mean temperature in 1985. According to the Mann-Kendall method, the abrupt changes of the temperature mainly occurred in the 1990s, the evaportranspiration jumps mostly occurred in the 1960s, and the abrupt changes of the sunshine duration primary took place in the 1980s. Although the results obtained by using three methods are different, it is undoubted that jumps have indeed occurred in the past four decades. This may result from possible climate change or the effect from human activities. It should be pointed out that it is not easy to distinguish between jumps and monotonic trends and further studies are required to identify these trends more precisely. However, it is believed that the approaches presented in this study could be useful tools for further examining the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes.
HTML   查看全文   查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器
分享按钮