余晖,胡春梅,蒋乐贻. 2006. 热带气旋强度资料的差异性分析[J]. 气象学报, 64(3):357-363, doi:10.11676/qxxb2006.034
热带气旋强度资料的差异性分析
COMPARISON OF THREE TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH DATASETS
投稿时间:2005-05-12  修订日期:2006-01-20
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2006.034
中文关键词:  热带气旋,强度,资料
英文关键词:Tropical cyclone, Typhoon strength, Strength data, Northwest Pacific.
基金项目:上海台风研究基金、国家自然科学基金(40333025)和国家科技部科研院所社会公益研究专项(2005DIB3J104)
作者单位
余晖 上海台风研究所上海, 200030
中国气象局台风预报技术重点开放实验室上海, 200030 
胡春梅 重庆市气象台重庆401147 
蒋乐贻 上海台风研究所上海, 200030 中国气象局台风预报技术重点开放实验室上海, 200030 
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中文摘要:
      通过对比西北太平洋3个主要预报中心(中国气象局(CMA)、日本东京台风中心(RSMC Tokyo)和美国联合台风警报中心(JTWC))的16a数据,分析了不同来源的热带气旋(TC)强度资料的差异性。结果表明:CMA与RSMC Tokyo和JTWC的TC强度均值分别相差0.6和1.7m/s,均通过1%信度的统计检验,即存在显著差异;3个中心对同一TC确定的强度最大差异超过30 m/s;CMA资料的台风数多于RSMC Tokyo和JTWC,年台风频数的均方差也最大,但是3个中心资料的各级TC频数差异均无统计显著性。对比有、无飞机探测时段的资料发现,对TC进行 飞机探测可在一定程度上减小各中心在确定TC强度方面的分歧。为了初步了解上述资料问题对TC强度预报的可能影响,采用一个气候持续性预报方法,取不同来源的TC强度资料进行了4a(2000—2003年)的预报。发现据JTWC资料所得TC强度预报有最大的均方根误差,RSMC Tokyo的最小,CMA居中;据CMA和RSMC Tokyo(CMA和JTWC)资料,对相同TC相同时次24h 预报的平均绝对偏差达2.5(4.0)m/s,最大可相差16(21)m/s。可见,西北太平洋TC强度的基本资料问题增加了预报的难度。
英文摘要:
      Analyzed in this paper are the 16 year (1988-2003) tropical cyclone (TC) intens i ty data from three major forecast centers for Northwest Pacific typhoons, i.e. C hina Meteorological Administration (CMA), Regional Specialized Meteorological Ce nter Tokyo (RSMC Tokyo), and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Analysis resul ts show that the mean strength difference of tropical cyclones between the CMA a nd RSMC Tokyo datasets and between the CMA and JTWC datasets are 0.6 and 1.7m/ s, respectively, which are both significant at the 1% confidence level; the maximu m difference in the strength of the same tropical cyclone determined by three ma jor typhoon forecast centers is more than 30 m/s; and the number of typhoons of the CMA dataset is greater than those of the RSMC Tokyo and JTWC datasets, and the mean square deviation of the annual frequency of typhoons of the CMA datasets is also largest, but there is no significant difference in the frequency of var ious category tropical cyclones among the three center datasets. The comparison of the data of different time periods with and without flight reconnaissance sug gests that the flight reconnaissance over TC can to some extent reduce the discr epancy in determining the strength of TC among different centers.
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