焦 林,张永刚 . 2009. 基于中尺度模式MM5下的海洋蒸发波导预报研究[J]. 气象学报, 67(3):382-387, doi:10.11676/qxxb2009.037
基于中尺度模式MM5下的海洋蒸发波导预报研究
An evaporation duct prediction model coupled with the MM5
投稿时间:2007-11-28  修订日期:2008-12-18
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2009.037
中文关键词:  蒸发波导诊断,非线性修正因子, 阵性风速, 中尺度模式MM5,蒸发波导预报模式, 数值模拟
英文关键词:Evaporation duct diagnosis, Nonlinear factor, Gust item, Mesoscale model MM5, Evaporation duct prediction Model, Numerical simulation
基金项目:自然科学基金国家863-701海洋环境监测资助项目
作者单位
焦 林 海军大连舰艇学院军事海洋系大连116018 
张永刚  海军大连舰艇学院军事海洋系大连116018 
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中文摘要:
      蒸发波导是发生在海气边界层的一种异常折射现象,由于其分布范围广、发生概率大,被认为是对海上电子设备影响最为显著的波导类型,成为各国海军竞相研究的焦点。然而由于其形成机制复杂,且在近岸沿海地区由于海陆分布不均,以及海岸地形和海陆风等因素的作用,会造成蒸发波导的近岸效应,这种效应会影响蒸发波导高度诊断的准确率。目前国内外蒸发波导诊断模式有P-J模式、MGB模式、NPS模式、Babin模式等,但其基本原理都是依赖Monin-Obukhov相似理论,只是用于确定近地层通量的和特征尺度的方法不同,且仅适用于定常和水平均匀的开阔海域,并没有考虑到蒸发波导的近岸效应。针对这一问题,本章在Babin模式的基础上引入张强、胡隐樵的通量廓线关系(非线性修正因子 )与阵性风速 ,从而将蒸发波导诊断模式的适用范围扩展到近岸沿海地区和甚低风速条件下。此外在中尺度模式MM5的基础上,耦合改进的Babin模式,发展建立了一个海洋蒸发波导高度预报模式,并对预报模式进行数值模拟,利用2002年5月25-26日福建平潭岛的海上大气实测数据与雷达探测结果对预报模式输出结果进行了验证。验证结果表明:在0—48小时内模式输出值与实测值拟和较好且变化规律一致,预报蒸发波导高度平均误差为0.193;且蒸发波导高度预报结果与雷达实际探测结果相一致。
英文摘要:
      The evaporation duct is an abnormal refractive phenomenon in marine atmosphere boundary layer. It is generally accepted that the evaporation duct prominently affects the performance of the electronic equipment on the sea because of its wide distribution and high occurrence. It becomes the research focus of navy all over the world. Owing to the anomalous distribution of sea and land、coast landform、offshore wind and shoreward wind in shore, it often causes the alongshore effect of the evaporation duct. This effect will debase the veracity of the evaporation duct diagnosis. At present, there are many diagnostic model of the evaporation duct, such as P-J model, MGB model, NPS model and Babin model etc. They are based on Monin-Obukhov similar theory, just it is different that confirms the flux and character scale in the surface layer. These models are only applied for the normality and homosphere in open sea without considering the alongshore effect. Based on this question, this paper introduces the flux-profile relations of Zhang qiang and Hu yinqiao(nonlinear factor ) and the gust item into the Babin model, extends the applicable scope of evaporation duct diagnosis model to the offshore coast and extremely low wind speed. In addition, the author designs an evaporation duct prediction model, coupling the fifth generation mesoscale model (MM5) and the improved Babin model, and uses the observational data and radar data at Ping tan island of Fujian province on May 25-26, 2002 to validate the forecast results. As a result, the outputs of the prediction model are better with the experimental data in 0 to 48 hours, the error of the prediction evaporation duct height is 0.193, and the prediction results are accord with the detection of the radar.
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