申乐琳,何金海,周秀骥,陈隆勋,祝从文. 2010. 近50年来中国夏季降水及水汽输送特征研究[J]. 气象学报, 68(6):918-931, doi:10.11676/qxxb2010.087
近50年来中国夏季降水及水汽输送特征研究
The regional variabilities of the summer rainfall in China and its relation with anomalous moisture transport during the recent 50 years
投稿时间:2008-09-17  修订日期:2008-11-06
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2010.087
中文关键词:  降水距平百分率,夏季异常降水,突变特征,水汽输送通量异常
英文关键词:Precipitation anomaly percentage, Summer precipitation anomaly, Abrupt changing characteristics, Moisture transport flux anomaly
基金项目:国家自然科学基金重点项目 (90711003)
作者单位
申乐琳 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院南京210044
国家气候中心北京100081  
何金海 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院南京210044 
周秀骥 中国气象科学研究院北京100081 
陈隆勋 中国气象科学研究院北京100081 
祝从文 中国气象科学研究院北京100081 
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中文摘要:
      利用1951—2006年中国448站夏季降水资料、NCEP/NCAR Version Ⅰ的再分析资料,研究了近50年来中国夏季降水年代际变化特征及其分区,并从季风性水汽输送的变化角度出发,讨论了影响中国一些主要地区降水变化的可能机制。研究发现:(1)从总体上来说,自1951年至今,中国夏季降水存在3个突变时段,即1956—1960年,1980年前后以及1993年以后。且90°E以东突变后的主要变化特征都是多雨区由北向南传播,而90°E以西则是多雨区由南向北传播;(2)近56年来就110°E以东的中国东部夏季降水而言,1980年以后多雨区由华北南移到长江中下游,又于1993年以后由长江中下游继续南移至华南;(3)中国东部各地区降水和850 hPa风场、整层水汽输送场的相关分布一致表明,中国110°E以东各降水区以南为来自偏东偏南的季风性异常水汽输送,而以北为来自偏北风和相应的异常水汽输送,两者在降水区汇合造成风和水汽输送异常辐合。因而,西太平洋副热带高压南侧的东南季风及其异常水汽输送、北方冷槽的偏北风及其异常水汽输送是中国东部夏季降水异常的主要成员,这和一般认为的这些地区降水异常来自孟加拉湾的季风性异常水汽输送的观点不同,需要作进一步研究。总之,对于中国东部旱涝的形成,应该重点注意来自西北太平洋副热带高压西侧的直接或间接经南海到达的异常西南季风性水汽输送。
英文摘要:
      The inter-decadal variability of the summer rainfall and its possible partitions in China have been investigated by using the observational rainfall data of 448 stations in China and the monthly NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset for 1951-2006. The possible mechanisms of the summer rainfall in every region of China are also discussed from the angle of the ariability of monsoonal moisture transport. Our main results are as follows: (1) there are three abrupt changing periods in the summer rainfall of China since 1951, i.e: 1956-1960, round 1980 and after 1993, whose significant abrupt characteristic in the area east of 90°E is that the rainy regions has been moving southward, while in the one west of 90°E moving northward around the jump points; (2) as to the summer rainfall during the recent 56 years over the eastern China east of 110°E, the rainy regions have moved southward to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from North China after 1980, and moved southward further to South China since 1993; (3) the analyses of the correlation coefficients of the summer rainfall over the regions of the eastern China with 850 hPa wind field and the integrated moisture transport, respectively, show that in the eastern China east of 110°E, there exist anomalous southeastward monsoonal water vapor transport south of the precipitation regions, while anomalous northward monsoonal water vapor transport north of them, whose convergence leads to the summer rainfall. Consequently, the anomalous moisture transport of the southeast monsoon directly from the south of subtropical high and the anomalous moisture transport of northerly winds from the north cold troughs are the important factors of the summer precipitation over the eastern China; generally, it was however believed that the anomalous rainfall over the eastern China resulted from the anomalous monsoonal moisture transport originated from the Bay of Bengal (BOB), which may require further studies. In a word, as to the flood in the eastern China, attention should be paid to the anomalous southwestward monsoonal moisture transport directly or via the South China Sea indirectly from west of the Northwest Pacific subtropical high.
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