黄丽萍,陈德辉,马明. 2012. 高分辨中尺度雷电预报模式GRAPES_LM的建立及其初步应用试验[J]. 气象学报, 70(2):291-301, doi:10.11676/qxxb2012.028
高分辨中尺度雷电预报模式GRAPES_LM的建立及其初步应用试验
The GRAPES high resolution mesoscale lightning forecast model and its preliminary validation
投稿时间:2010-05-11  修订日期:2011-03-27
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2012.028
中文关键词:  高分辨中尺度预报模式,雷电模式,起电/放电过程,参数化
英文关键词:High-resolution meso-scale forecast system,Lightning model, Chargining/Discharging process, Parameterization
基金项目:国家“十一五”科技攻关项目(2006BAC02B02)和国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2004CB418306)
作者单位
黄丽萍 南京信息工程大学南京210044
国家气象中心北京100081 
陈德辉 国家气象中心北京100081 
马明 中国科学技术大学地球和空间科学学院合肥230026 
摘要点击次数: 2789
全文下载次数: 2680
中文摘要:
      为了探索雷电天气的数值预报新方法,在高分辨GRAPES_Meso中尺度预报模式中添加了各种水成物电荷密度预报方程组,同时从传统基于云模式的三维雷电模式中剥离出起电过程和放电过程参数化方案,作为中尺度模式的一种物理过程参数化方案嵌套进中尺度模式,使得整套中尺度模式包含了大气动力、雷电过程及各种物理过程,建立了大气动力-物理过程和雷电过程一体化的数值预报模式GRAPES_LM,建立的GRAPES_LM模式包含了多种复杂的微物理过程参数化方案,其中,包括中国气象科学研究院开发研制的双参数对流云参数化方案;包含了霰/雹与冰晶/雪晶碰撞回弹的非感应起电、霰/雹与云滴碰撞的感应起电及霰碰撞大云滴造成冰晶繁生的次生冰晶起电3种起电参数化方案以及最新的随机双向放电参数化。并利用美国CCOPE观测试验中的个例观测资料(1981年7月19日),进行了初步应用模拟试验,对模式的雷电数值预报的可行性进行了验证分析。结果表明,高分辨率GRAPES_LM模式对1981年7月19日的雷电过程个例做出了成功的模拟预报,较好地给出了雷暴云的动力、微物理和电过程的时空演变,雷电天气数值预报新方法的可行性得到了初步验证。
英文摘要:
      To explore a new numerical forecast way for thunderstorm, a high-resolution mesoscale synoptic-dynamics parameterization and electrification-lightning unified forecast model (GRAPES_LM) (Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System_Lightning Model) has been developed, based on the GRAPES_Meso system. The addition of a range of needed components, including the equation sets for predicting the charge density of the different water substances, and charging and discharging process parameterizations which has been splited from the traditional thunder lightning model, has enriched the meso-scale system with the parameterized synoptic dynamics process, electric process, and physical processes. And thus a high resolution GRAPES_meso lightning forecast model aimed to predict lightning thunderstorm has been established. The new GRAPES_meso lightning forecast model has been incorporated the various parameterized components for the sophisticated microphysical-processes,including the dual-parameter-convective-cloud parameterization sheme developed by the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, the three charging parameterization schemes for the non inductive rebounding graupel (hail)ice (snow) collisions charging, the inductive graupel (hail) cloud droplets collision charging, and the graupel-large cloud droplets collisions caused secondary ice crystal charging, as well as the latest random bi-directional lightning parameterization scheme. To validate and evaluate the predictability for its lightning forecasting, the model was used to simulate the CCOPE (Cooperative Convective Precipitation Experiment) case of 19 July 1981. The results show that the high-resolution GRAPES_LM simulated successfully the thunderstorm case occurred on 19 July 1981, and the spatial and temporal development of the dynamic, microphysical, and electrification processes agree with the observed results quite well. This indicates that the lightning numerical forecast is feasible and it provides a new tool for lightning study. 
HTML   查看全文   查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器
分享按钮