张颖娴,丁一汇. 2014. 北半球温带气旋的模拟和预估研究Ⅱ:6个CMIP5耦合模式预估的未来RCP4.5情景下的变化[J]. 气象学报, 72(6):1171-1185, doi:10.11676/qxxb2014.073
北半球温带气旋的模拟和预估研究Ⅱ:6个CMIP5耦合模式预估的未来RCP4.5情景下的变化
A study of simulation and prediction of extratropical cyclones over the Northern Hemisphere partⅡ: Future changes under RCP4.5 projected by the 6 CMIP5 coupled models
投稿时间:2013-11-22  修订日期:2014-06-19
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2014.073
中文关键词:  温带气旋  风暴轴  CMIP5  典型浓度路径
英文关键词:Extratropical cyclones  Storm track  CMIP5  Representative Concentration Pathway
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划项目973计划(2010CB950404、2012CB417205和2013CB430202)、国家自然基金重点项目(41130960)、公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406017、GYHY201406001).
作者单位
张颖娴 国家气候中心, 北京, 100081 
丁一汇 国家气候中心, 北京, 100081 
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中文摘要:
      利用CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) 的6个气候耦合模式中等排放情景——RCP4.5(典型浓度路径4.5)下的模拟结果对北半球温带气旋数目、风暴路径和强度的未来变化进行了研究分析.结果表明:(1)相对于20世纪后半叶,RCP4.5情景下的2053—2100年,虽然各模式的模拟结果存在一定的区域性差异,但共同显示了至21世纪末北半球整体温带气旋生成将减少,较低纬度减少得更显著.(2)模式较一致地模拟出未来北半球温带气旋的中心气压有降低的趋势,涡度强度将线性减弱.大多数的模式模拟得到北大西洋风暴轴未来将继续向极地偏移,但强度主要将减弱;过半的模式显示北太平洋风暴轴也将向极地偏移,强度变化则随季节的不同而不同.(3) 6个模式的模拟结果均显示对流层中高层斜压区未来将向高层和高纬度扩展,南半球的变化更为显著.斜压区的变化在某种程度上反映了风暴轴的类似变化,因此,这也支持了北太平洋和北大西洋风暴路径未来可能向极地偏移的结论.RCP4.5情景下北半球整体温带气旋活动将显著减少,但斜压区和风暴轴向高纬度的偏移将使较低纬度未来温带气旋活动减少得更为显著.
英文摘要:
      The simulation results of the 6 climate coupled models of CMIP5 under the secondary emission scenarion RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) are used to estimate the changes of the extratropical cyclone (EC) numbers and EC intensity, as well as the storm track and its strength in the future. The results indicate that: (1) although each model differs in the simulations of the regional cyclogenesis during 2053—2100 under RCP4.5 relative to the second half of the 20th century, it is similarly found that ECs would decrease integrally in the Northern Hemisphere, especially in the lower latitudes. (2) The central pressure of ECs over the Northern Hemisphere would depress and the vorticity intensity would weaken in the future reproduced by models consistently. The simulated Atlantic storm track would move polewards sequentially but with weakened strength as are shown by most of the models in the future; the simulated Pacific storm track would also migrate polewards by more than half the models, but with intensity changes differing in the different seasons. And, (3) a poleward movement of the future baroclinic zone in the middle-upper troposphere is detected in all the 6 models, and this change in the Southern Hemisphere would be more significant. The changes of the baroclinic zone reflect the similar changes of storm track to some extent, which supports for the conclusion of possible poleward shift of the two storm tracks. That could be a significant reduction in EC activities over the Northern Hemisphere under RCP4.5, while the poleward movements of baroclinic zone and storm path would cause more remarkable reduction of EC activities over the lower latitudes in the future.
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