黄建平,冉津江,季明霞. 2014. 中国干旱半干旱区洪涝灾害的初步分析[J]. 气象学报, 72(6):1096-1107, doi:10.11676/qxxb2014.089
中国干旱半干旱区洪涝灾害的初步分析
Preliminary analysis of the flood disaster over the arid and semi-arid regions in China
投稿时间:2014-01-06  修订日期:2014-09-04
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2014.089
中文关键词:  干旱半干旱区  洪涝灾害  极端降水事件
英文关键词:Arid and semi-arid regions  Flood disaster  Extreme precipitation event
基金项目:国家重大科学研究计划(2012CB955301)、国家自然科学基金项目(41175134,41305060).
作者单位
黄建平 兰州大学大气科学学院, 半干旱气候变化教育部重点实验室, 兰州, 730000 
冉津江 兰州大学大气科学学院, 半干旱气候变化教育部重点实验室, 兰州, 730000
四川省气象培训中心, 成都, 610072 
季明霞 兰州大学大气科学学院, 半干旱气候变化教育部重点实验室, 兰州, 730000 
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中文摘要:
      中国干旱半干旱区的洪涝灾害是一个尚未引起人们重视的重大科学问题,这主要是因为干旱半干旱区对洪涝灾害的防范意识比较薄弱.而极端降水事件的次数、强度和持续时间与干旱半干旱区的洪涝灾害有密切联系,直接影响该区域洪涝灾害及其次生地质灾害的次数与严重程度.以干旱半干旱区的极端降水事件为切入点,分析了中国干旱半干旱区的极端降水事件次数和极端降水量的变化特征,旨在为干旱半干旱区的洪涝灾害研究提供科学依据.结果表明,进入21世纪以来,中国110°E以西的干旱半干旱区极端降水事件的日数有所增多,而110°E以东的区域日数都有所减少.干旱半干旱区极端降水量的变化也呈现出西增东减的分布,大部分干旱半干旱区的极端降水量变化占总降水量变化的40%以上,一部分地区能达到50%,甚至100%—200%.从季节变化来看,春季天山以北、新疆南部、甘肃敦煌和内蒙古包头以北地区极端降水量增加较多,夏季110°E以西的干旱半干旱区极端降水量均增大明显,秋季陕西榆林、内蒙古鄂尔多斯、包头和呼和浩特等地极端降水量增大较明显.
英文摘要:
      Floods can have disastrous effects on the society and environment, and scientific research can help to mitigate these effects. So far, not enough attention has been paid to the floods over the arid and semi-arid regions in China, and the awareness and prevention policy on floods over these regions are relatively weak. The floods over the arid and semi-arid regions are highly associated with the number, intensity and duration of extreme precipitation events, which also determine the number and severity of the flood events and their secondary geological disasters over the regions. In this study, we analyzed the number and characteristics of extreme precipitation events over the arid and semi-arid regions in China, in order to provide some scientific basis for making prevention policy. The results show that the number of days of extreme precipitation events has increased since the 21st century over the arid and semi-arid areas west of 110°E, but decreased to the east of 110°E. The trend of extreme precipitation showed positive sign in the area west of 110°E and negative sign in the one east of it. In addition, the fraction of the extreme precipitation change over the total precipitation one is over 40% in most of the regions, and reached 50% or even 100% to 200% in some areas. The seasonal variation showed that the extreme precipitation increased in spring over the north of the Tian Shan Mountains, southern Xinjiang, northern Dunhuang, northern Gansu, and Inner Mongolia. In summer, the extreme precipitation increased dramatically over the arid and semi-arid regions west of 110°E; in autumn, the extreme precipitation increased over Yulin in northern Shanxi, Erdos, Hohhot, and Baotou in Inner Mongolia, and some other places. Based on the above results, we carried out more basic analysis of the spatial and temporal characteristics of floods over the arid and semi-arid regions.
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