吴楚樵,刘玉芝,贾瑞,邵天彬,汪兵. 2018. 江淮流域梅雨期气候对全球气候变暖的响应[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2018.046
江淮流域梅雨期气候对全球气候变暖的响应
Response of the Meiyu System over Yangtze River Region to Global Warming.
投稿时间:2017-12-21  修订日期:2018-05-14
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2018.046
中文关键词:  全球变暖,梅雨,江淮地区,CMIP5模式,预估
英文关键词:Global warming, the Meiyu period, YHRV, CMIP5 Models, estimate
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(91737101,91744311和41475095)、111引智基地项目(B13045)及兰州大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(lzujbky-2017-63)
作者单位E-mail
吴楚樵 半干旱气候变化教育部重点实验室 wuchq16@lzu.edu.cn 
刘玉芝 半干旱气候变化教育部重点实验室 liuyzh@lzu.edu.cn 
贾瑞 半干旱气候变化教育部重点实验室 jiar13@lzu.edu.cn 
邵天彬 半干旱气候变化教育部重点实验室 shaotb13@lzu.edu.cn 
汪兵 半干旱气候变化教育部重点实验室 bwang17@lzu.edu.cn 
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中文摘要:
      在全球气候变暖背景下,中国江淮流域梅雨期的气候响应趋于复杂,给江淮流域梅雨期的气候预测带来了更多的不确定因素。研究江淮梅雨期气候对全球变暖的响应,对于认识江淮梅雨变化新趋势、提高新气候背景下的汛期预报及制定防灾减灾政策均有深远意义。本文采用中国地面气温和降水日值数据集对近几十年来江淮地区梅雨期的气温和降水变化进行了深入分析,基于观测结果,评估了国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的22个模式结果,并对CMIP5模式预估的21世纪中排放(RCP4.5)和高排放(RCP8.5)情景下我国江淮流域梅雨期的气温和降水变化进行了分析,并对梅雨期气候变化的机理进行了探讨。研究结果表明,在全球变暖背景下,江淮地区梅雨期气候亦发生了相应的变化,气温呈现出显著的增加趋势,降水亦发生了相应调整,在较暖年降水偏多,较冷年降水偏少。在未来全球进一步变暖的背景下,江淮地区梅雨期平均气温和降水进一步增加,且随着排放量的增加,降水的空间分布不均匀性也在加剧。
英文摘要:
      With the global warming, the climate over Yangtze-Huai River Valley (YHRV, 110°E–122°E, 28°N–34°N) of China tends to be more complicated. The climate prediction during the Meiyu period of YHRV is a scientific issue to be solved urgently. Basing on the daily mean surface air temperature grid data with 0.5°×0.5°resolution (V2.0) and the precipitation data at 74 stations over YHRV, we investigate the response of the climate in the Meiyu period over YHRV during recent decades in this study. Through accessing the modeling ability of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models over the YHRV Region, the surface air temperature and precipitation over this region during the 20th century are predicted under the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 scenarios basing on the simulation by 22 models of CMIP5. The related mechanism is studied as well.The result shows that, under the background of global warming, the climate of YHRV during the Meiyu period has undergone corresponding changes. The surface air temperature during the Meiyu period over YHRV showed an increasing trend at a rate of 0.40°C decade-1, simultaneously, the precipitation was adjusted correspondingly. The precipitation was relatively more in the warm years but less in the cold years. With global warming in the future, the averaged temperature and precipitation during the Meiyu period over YHRV has a further increase, in which the spatial distribution of the precipitation will be enhanced.
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