李金洁,王爱慧,郭东林,王丹. 2019. 高分辨率统计降尺度数据集NEX-GDDP对中国极端温度指数模拟能力的评估[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2019.032
高分辨率统计降尺度数据集NEX-GDDP对中国极端温度指数模拟能力的评估
Evaluation of the extreme temperature indices simulated by high resolution statistical downscaling data-set NEX-GDDP in China
投稿时间:2018-03-31  修订日期:2018-11-07
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2019.032
中文关键词:  NEX-GDDP  极端温度  模式评估  优选模式  CMIP5
英文关键词:NEX-GDDP  Extreme temperature  Models evaluation  selecting models  CMIP5
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目课题(2016YFA0602401)
作者单位E-mail
李金洁 中国科学院大气物理研究所 lijinjie@mail.iap.ac.cn 
王爱慧 中国科学院大气物理研究所 wangaihui@mail.iap.ac.cn 
郭东林 中国科学院大气物理研究所 guodonglin@mail.iap.ac.cn 
王丹 中国科学院大气物理研究所 wangdan@mail.iap.ac.cn 
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中文摘要:
      利用1986~2005年的中国地面气象台站观测的格点化逐日气温资料(CN05.1)评估了高分辨率统计降尺度数据集NASA Earth Exchange/Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP)中21个全球气候模式对中国极端温度指数的模拟能力。在文中选用了日最低温度最大值(TNx)、日最高温度最大值(TXx)、暖夜指数(TN90p)和暖昼指数(TX90p)来研究极端温度事件的变化。结果显示:(1)除MRI-CGCM3模拟的TXx外,其余模式对四个指数的模拟结果均体现出与观测一致的上升趋势,但模拟结果的平均值相对观测平均偏低了0.26℃/10年(TNx)、0.19℃/10年(TXx)、2.21%/10年(TN90p)、1.04%/10年(TX90p)。(2)不同模式对各指数变化趋势空间分布特征的模拟存在较大差别,对TNx、TXx、TN90p和TX90p模拟能力最优模式分别为CCSM4、CESM1-BGC、MIROC-ESM-CHEM和bcc-csm1-1。模式模拟的TNx和TXx气候态平均值与观测值的相关系数在0.97以上。TN90p和TX90p模拟结果与观测值的标准差比值为0.34~1.58,均方根误差变化为1.6~3.47%,对这两个指数模拟能力较优的模式分别为MIROC-ESM-CHEM(TN90p)和CESM1-BGC(TX90p)。(3)综合模式对四个指数在气候态平均值和变化趋势模拟能力的评估结果来看,CanESM2、CESM1-BGC和MIROC-ESM-CHEM显示了相对较好的模拟能力。因此,在利用GDDP-NEX研究未来极端温度事件时,本研究建议将它们作为优选模式。
英文摘要:
      In this study, based on the gridded observation air temperature datasets (CN05.1) for the period 1986–2005 over China, we evaluate the daily extreme temperature simulated by the 21 models from the NASA Earth Exchange/Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) Both CN05.01 and NEX-GDDP have a spatial horizontal of 0.25°′0.25°. Four extreme temperature indices, including the lowest daily temperature maximum (TNx), the highest daily temperature (TXx), the warm night frequency (TN90p) and warm day frequency (TX90p), are adopted to investigate the change of extreme temperature. The major conclusions are: (1) Except of TXx from the MRI - CGCM3, the four indices from other models show an upward tendency, which is consistent with the observations. However, the magnitudes of linear trend are less than that from observation with the value of 0.26℃/decade(TNx), 0.19℃ /decade (TXx), 2.21% decade (TN90p), 1.04%/ decade (TX90p), respectively.(2)There are larger differences in spatial patterns of those indices among models, for four indices the best performance is in turn CCSM4, CESM1-BGC, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and bcc-csm1. For spatial pattern of extreme indices climatology, can be simulated perfectly, the correlation coefficient of TNx and TXx from all models exceeds 0.97. The standard deviation ratio between simulations and observations varies from 0.34 to 1.58, and the square root error is 1.6%-3.47%. (3) From the synthetical evaluation of four extreme indices in term of their spatial climatology and linear trend, the performances of three (i.e., CanESM2, CESM1-BGC and MIROC-ESM-CHEM) are the relatively better performance. Therefore, we suggest selecting those three models in the NEX-GDDP to investigate the extreme temperature change in the future.
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