徐燚. 2019. 基于ECMWF模式预报的台风降水地形订正方法[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2019.037
基于ECMWF模式预报的台风降水地形订正方法
Research for terrain correction method on typhoon precipitation based on ECMWF forecast
投稿时间:2018-04-02  修订日期:2018-08-06
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2019.037
中文关键词:  台风降水, 地形订正方法,ECMWF模式预报
英文关键词:Typhoon precipitation, terrain correction method, ECMWF forecast
基金项目:“国家重点基础研究发展计划(项目编号:2015CB452806)”、2015年度公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY201506007和中国气象局关键技术发展专项YBGJXM(2018)1B-06
作者单位E-mail
徐燚 浙江省气象台 xy020312@126.com 
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中文摘要:
      为了解决复杂地形条件下,ECMWF模式预报的台风降水较实况显著偏小的问题,对Smith (1979)提出的地形降水方程进行改进,提出以饱和湿层高度作为方程积分上限,针对不同高度地形设定不同的降水效率;以无量纲湿Froude数大于1作为有无地形降水的判据;利用ECWMF细网格预报场,通过迎风坡地形降水估算方程来订正模式预报的台风降水。用该地形降水订正方法对1617号台风“鲇鱼”的降水进行了订正预报,结果表明,虽然在一些小尺度地形区域会产生明显的空报,但是对于大尺度地形区域的强降水有显著的订正效果。对1513、1521和1614台风的订正结果进一步表明,该地形降水订正方法对改进台风极端降水预报效果显著,这对于防灾减灾有非常重要的意义。需要指出的是,文中采用的地形降水订正方法仅考虑了稳定条件下的地形降水,对于其它情形下的地形降水订正方法还有待进一步的研究。
英文摘要:
      In this paper, the orographic precipitation equation proposed by Smith (1979) is improved. It is proposed that the height of the saturated moist layer is used as the upper bound of the equation, and different precipitation efficiencies are set up for different height terrain; the dimensionless wet Froude number is greater than 1 as the criterion of orographic precipitation. The precipitation correction method was used to forecast the precipitation of Typhoon Megi (1617) . The results show that although there are obvious false prediction in some small scale terrain areas, for strong precipitation in large scale terrain areas, there is a significant correction effect. The correction results of typhoon 1513, 1521 and 1614 show that the correction method of orographic precipitation on windward slope has significant effect on improving typhoon extreme precipitation prediction, which is of great significance for disaster prevention and mitigation. It is necessary to point out that the topographic precipitation correction method used in this paper only considers the orographic precipitation under the stable condition, and the orographic precipitation correction method in other cases needs further study.
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