宋林烨,陈明轩,程丛兰,高峰,陈敏. 2019. 京津冀夏季雷达定量降水估测的误差统计及定量气候校准[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2019.022
京津冀夏季雷达定量降水估测的误差统计及定量气候校准
Characteristics of summer QPE error and a climatological correction method over Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
投稿时间:2018-04-02  修订日期:2018-06-28
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2019.022
中文关键词:  雷达定量降水估测(QPE)  误差  定量气候校准  京津冀
英文关键词:radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE)  error  climatological correction  Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
基金项目:国家自然基金项目41605031和41575050资助
作者单位E-mail
宋林烨 中国气象局北京城市气象研究所 lysong@ium.cn 
陈明轩 中国气象局北京城市气象研究所 mxchen@ium.cn 
程丛兰 中国气象局北京城市气象研究所 clcheng@ium.cn 
高峰 中国气象局北京城市气象研究所 fgao@ium.cn 
陈敏 中国气象局北京城市气象研究所 mchen@ium.cn 
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中文摘要:
      雷达定量降水估测(QPE)是短时临近预报的关键部分,在定量降水预报(QPF)、强降水预警、城市积水内涝、地质山洪灾害、精细化天气服务等方面具有重要作用。利用京津冀区域雷达QPE资料和逐小时自动站降水数据,分析了2011—2016年夏季京津冀区域雷达QPE的误差空间分布特征,并重点提出了一种新的雷达本地化定量气候校准算法。结果表明,京津冀区域雷达QPE较好反映了总降水量“东北-西南”带状分布特征,但西北部山区、东北部山区及西南部山区估计偏弱,东北部山前地带估计偏强,西北部存在虚假降水估计,而北京市城区估计最为准确。利用雷达本地化定量气候校准算法对1小时雷达QPE进行气候尺度上的约束订正,检验结果表明,经过校准后的雷达QPE偏差(BIAS)、平均绝对误差(MAE)、均方根误差(RMSE)和均方根相对误差(RRMSE)均减小。绝大部分站点BIAS减小幅度可达50%以上,京津冀东部及南部平原地带MAE、RMSE和RRMSE减小幅度在20%左右,而北部及西南部山区误差减小幅度相对较小。降水个例检验结果表明,经过雷达定量气候校准后的雷达QPE强度更接近自动站观测的降水量级,且降水结构细致,BIAS、MAE和RMSE均减小,和自动站观测降水的相关系数增大,因此该算法有助于改进雷达QPE的准确性。该算法具有较高的业务推广价值,可广泛应用于其它地区。
英文摘要:
      Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) is a key component of short-term and nowcasting, which plays an important role in many aspects such as Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), heavy precipitation warning, urban waterlog, geological mountain torrent disaster, and fine weather service. In this paper, spatial distribution characteristics of radar QPE over Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is analyzed using the radar QPE data and automatic weather station 1h precipitation data during summer for period of 2011-2016. Specifically, a new kind of climatological correction algorithm is proposed. Results show that the radar QPE can well reflect the northeast to southwest distribution of observed total rainfall. However, the radar QPE is under-estimated over the northwest, the northeast and southwest mountain areas, and over-estimated over the piedmont zone of the northeast mountain area. Besides, false precipitation estimation is found over the northwest region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Precipitation over the Beijing city estimated by radar is the closest to observation. Then, the new proposed climatological correction algorithm is applied for the 1h radar QPE to calibrate the radar. Results of test show that the BIAS, mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and relative RMSE (RRMSE) are all reduced after correction. In particular, the reduction percentage of BIAS reaches more than 50% at most stations. The reduction percentage of MAE, RMSE and RRMSE is about 20% in the eastern and southern plain parts, and is relatively small in the northern and southwestern parts. Test of precipitation cases shows that the strength of radar QPE is closer to the station observations and the high-resolution structure of precipitation is still captured by radar after correction. Furthermore, the BIAS, MAE and RMSE of precipitation cases are all reduced, and the correlation coefficient with the observations is increased. Hence, the climatological correction algorithm can improve the accuracy of the radar QPE. The correction algorithm is of high popularization value and can be widely used in other areas.
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