周梦子,周广胜,吕晓敏,周莉,汲玉河. 2019. 1.5℃和2℃温升阈值下中国温度和降水变化的预估[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2019.37
1.5℃和2℃温升阈值下中国温度和降水变化的预估
Projection of temperature and precipitation over China under Global Warming of 1.5℃and 2℃
投稿时间:2018-06-07  修订日期:2019-01-16
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2019.37
中文关键词:  CMIP5耦合气候模式,气候变化,预估,1.5℃温升阈值,2℃温升阈值
英文关键词:CIMP5, Climate change, Projection, 1.5℃ global warming, 2℃ global warming
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41705093、41330531)和中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201711)
作者单位E-mail
周梦子 中国气象科学研究院 zhoumengzi@cma.gov.cn 
周广胜 中国气象科学研究院
南京信息工程大学气象灾害预警协同创新中心 
zhougs@cma.gov.cn 
吕晓敏 中国气象科学研究院 swiftxiaomin@163.com 
周莉 中国气象科学研究院 zhouli@cma.gov.cn 
汲玉河 中国气象科学研究院 jiyh@cma.gov.cn 
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中文摘要:
      (目的、资料和方法)基于CMIP5耦合气候模式模拟结果对1.5℃和2℃温升阈值时中国温度和降水变化的分析表明:(结果)1.5℃温升阈值时,中国年平均增温由南向北加强且在青藏高原地区有所放大,季节尺度上增温的空间分布与其类似,就区域平均而言,RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下中国年平均温度分别增加1.83℃、1.75℃和1.88℃,温度的季节变幅以冬季增温最为显著;除华南和西南地区外中国大部地区年平均降水量增加,降水的季节差异明显,以夏季降水的分布模态与年平均降水量的分布最为相似,区域平均的年降水量分别增加5.03%、2.82%和3.27%,季节尺度上以冬季降水增幅最大。2℃温升阈值时,RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下中国年平均温度的空间分布与1.5℃温升阈值基本一致,中国年平均温度分别升高2.49℃和2.54℃,季节尺度上温度的变化以秋冬季节增幅最大;全国范围内年平均降水量基本表现为增加趋势,其中西北和长江中下游部分地区表现为明显的季节差异,区域平均的年降水量分别增加6.26%和5.86%。(结论)与1.5℃温升阈值相比较,2℃温升阈值时中国年平均温度在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下分别增加0.74℃和0.76℃,降水则分别增加3.44%和2.59%,空间上温度增加以东北、西北和青藏高原最为显著,降水则在东北、华北、青藏高原和华南地区增加最为明显。
英文摘要:
      Based on the outputs of CMIP5 under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios, the changes of temperature and precipitation over China in the context of global warming of 1.5℃ and 2℃ are projected and their differences between 1.5℃ and 2℃ global warming are further compared. The results show that in the context of global warming of 1.5℃relative to reference period (1986-2005) the amplitude of warming of annual and seasonal mean temperature enhances towards the high latitude especially in Qinghai-Tibet plateau. Annual mean air temperature over China will increase 1.83℃, 1.75℃ and 1.88℃ respectively under RCP2.6、RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario, with stronger increase in winter. Expect for South China and Southwest China, major part of China experiences more precipitation but with somewhat different among seasons. The enhancement in the annual mean precipitation over China ranges from 3.27% to 5.03%, with more amplification in winter. The spatial distribution of temperature is similar between 1.5℃ and 2℃ global warming. When global warming is 2℃, the annual temperature over China will increase 2.49℃ and 2.54℃respectively under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario. The annual precipitation increases in most region of China whereas there is obvious seasonal differences in Northwest China and the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River. Compared with the case under the 1.5℃ threshold, more enhanced temperature and precipitation can be expected under 2℃ threshold. The most significant increase of temperature are in Northeast China, Northwest China and Qinghai-Tibet plateau while the precipitation in Northeast China, North China, Qinghai-Tibet plateau and South China.
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