郑然. 2019. 年际增量方法在西南夏季降水预测中的应用[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2019.027
年际增量方法在西南夏季降水预测中的应用
Application of interannual increment method in predicting summer rainfall in southwest china
投稿时间:2018-07-05  修订日期:2018-08-31
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2019.027
中文关键词:  西南地区,夏季降水,年际增量
英文关键词:the southwest china,summer rainfall,annual increment
基金项目:气象关键技术集成与应用(重点/面上)项目YBGJXM(2017)05-01、高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目(2018-青年-05)
作者单位E-mail
郑然 四川省气候中心 zhengran0512@163.com 
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中文摘要:
      西南地区80站逐月降水资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料等,采用降水预测新方法-年际增量法,考察影响西南地区夏季降水年际增量的前期冬春季大气环流年际增量状况,并选取5个关键影响因子,采用多元回归法建立西南夏季降水年际增量预测模型。对降水年际增量进行预测,在1971~2010年的建模阶段,预测模型的拟合率为0.78,在2011~2017的后报检验七年中,有六年与实况值同位相。后报检验2011~2017年的降水距平百分率,均方根误差为16%。为考察对降水异常分布型的预报效果,逐站建立回归方程,并进行趋势预报检验,近五年的ps评分高于发布预测,预报效果较好。因此,该方法的应用及模型的建立对提高西南地区夏季降水预测水平有重要意义。
英文摘要:
      based on 80 stations monthly precipitation observations in Southwest China and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, using method of annual increment to investigate the interannual increment of atmospheric circulation in the early winter and spring which influences the interannual increment of summer precipitation in Southwest China, and selected five key factors to establish an interannual incremental prediction model of summer rainfall in Southwest China by using multiple regression method. In the modeling stage form 1971 to 2010 for the interannual incremental forecast of precipitation, the fitting rate of the prediction model was 0.78. In the post-test seven years from 2011 to 2017, there were six years phase same as the actual, and the root mean square error is 16% in return test for percentage of precipitation anomalies form 2011 to 2017. The regression equation was established station by station to investigate the prediction effect on the precipitation type, and the PS score in past five years was higher than the release prediction. Therefore, the application of this method and the establishment of the model are of great significance to improve the prediction level of summer precipitation in Southwest China.
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