王芝兰,奚立宗,李耀辉. 2020. 中国西北地区东部近546年干旱事件特征分析[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2020.008
中国西北地区东部近546年干旱事件特征分析
Characteristics of the drought in the east of northwest China over the past 546 years
投稿时间:2018-07-23  修订日期:2019-09-02
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2020.008
中文关键词:  西北地区东部,长时间序列,干旱,干旱持续性
英文关键词:long time series, drought, the persistence of drought, east of Northwest China
基金项目:
作者单位E-mail
王芝兰 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室 wangzhlan2008@163.com 
奚立宗 甘肃省气象局 lizongxx@126.com 
李耀辉 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室 li-yaohui@163.com 
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中文摘要:
      以西北地区东部的16个代表站1470-2008年的旱涝等级资料和1960-2015年5~9月气象站降水量数据为基础,建立了546年中国西北地区东部干旱事件序列,采用EOF分解、滑动t检验、小波分析等统计方法,对其干湿演变规律进行分析,详细讨论了500余年极端干旱事件及其时空特征。结果表明:历史干旱等级资料能够准确反映出西北地区东部干旱变化的时空特征,西北地区东部干旱的空间分布主要表现为全区一致型、南北反向型以及以陇南-陕西南为中心并与周围地区反向的空间分布型;青海东部、宁夏及陕北发生旱的频率较高,陕西南部地区发生涝的频率较高;从百年尺度的演变来看,西北地区东部20世纪发生旱、偏旱的频率最高,其中以宁夏及陕北最为明显,而1900至今是西北东部干旱灾害发生的高频期。通过定义旱(涝)尺度因子,对西北地区东部500余年的旱(涝)持续性进行分析,结果表明西宁以西、宁夏东部及陕西北部的干旱具有较长的持续性,甘肃和陕西南部地区的干旱持续性较差;1470-1500年和1910-1940年是干旱持续性最强的时期,对应着西北地区东部在历史上出现的两次百年甚至两百年一遇的极端干旱事件。这也说明空间范围广、干旱程度重的极端干旱事件对干旱的持续性起重要的作用。
英文摘要:
      Based on the data of 16 stations in the east of northwest China, a drought/flood grade series in the period of 1470-2015 is established. The spatial and temporal characters of the drought variation is analyzed using the methods of EOF, moving-t test and wavelet analysis in this paper. The spatial distribution of droughts in the east of northwest China shows a consistent pattern throughout the whole region. However, dissimilar distribution patterns were observed between the southern and northern parts of the research area as well as between south Gansu–south Shaanxi and their surrounding areas. Drought frequently takes place in east Qinghai, Ningxia, and north Shaanxi. The east of northwest China, especially Ningxia and north Shaanxi, suffered from drought and partial drought most frequently in the 20thcentury. Drought and flood disasters were also persistent in this area since 1900. This paper analyzes the persistence of drought in the east of northwest China over the past 500 years by defining the drought (flood) scale factor. The drought in the area to the west of Xi’ning, east Ningxia, and north Shaanxi continued for a long time, while that in Gansu and south Shaanxi did not persist for long. The drought showed a long-term persistence in years 1470–1500 and 1910–1940,and two instances of extreme drought took place in the eastern part of northwest China. This extreme drought has taken place in a vast area and has a great influence on the persistence of drought.
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