麻素红. 2019. 涡旋强度调整半径对No.1618热带气旋路径预报的影响[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2019.035
涡旋强度调整半径对No.1618热带气旋路径预报的影响
Impacts of radius of TC intensity correction to No.1618 track prediction
投稿时间:2018-08-10  修订日期:2018-11-10
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2019.035
中文关键词:  涡旋初始化 强度调整 涡旋尺度 路径误差
英文关键词:vortex initialization intensity correction vortex size track error
基金项目:国家公益性行业专项(GYHY201406006)资助
作者单位E-mail
麻素红 国家气象中心 mash@cma.gov.cn 
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中文摘要:
      2016年国家气象中心区域台风模式(GRAPES_TYM)对第18号热带气旋(记为No.1618)的路径预报出现了较大的误差:其平均路径误差显著大于全年的平均误差。本文分析了涡旋初始化方案(包括涡旋重定位以及涡旋强度调整)对其路径预报的影响。结果显示:涡旋强度调整是造成No.1618预报路径平均路径误差偏大的主要原因。不同的强度调整半径(r_0=12°,9°,6°,3°)对No.1618路径影响的敏感性试验结果显示:强度调整半径越大,其平均路径预报误差越大。500hPa副热带高压以及平均海平面涡旋尺度分析发现:较大的强度调整半径(r_0=12°,9°)其初始时刻的涡旋尺度较大,涡旋北侧临近区域副高等值线相对偏北,副高相对偏弱。尺度大的涡旋其北移速度较大,并且在积分过程中其环流邻近区域副高进一步减弱,导致涡旋环流会更早与其西北侧东移的西风槽结合,移速偏快。
英文摘要:
      The mean track error of 18th Tropical Cyclone (TC) in 2016 (noted as No.1618) predicted by the regional Typhoon model GRAPES_TYM is much larger compared with that of the whole TCs in that year. The impacts of vortex initialization scheme including vortex relocation and intensity correction are tested in this paper. The results show that vortex intensity correction is the main factor that causes the big mean track errors. The sensitivity study on the impacts of the different radii (r_0=12°,9°,6°,3°)of vortex intensity correction to the forecast tracks is further carried out. The results show that the larger the radius of intensity correction, the bigger the mean track error. The larger intensity correction radius will produces faster moving speed and larger moving direction error. The investigation of subtropical high and the size of TC vortex in the mean sea level pressure field reveals that larger intensity correction radius produces a larger TC vortex and lower value of subtropical high close to the circulation of TC in the initial time, the larger TC vortex moves faster northward, sustains larger size of vortex and weaker subtropical to the north of TC during integration. Eventually the larger vortex moves into the westerly trough earlier.
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