邹燕,伍红雨,林昕,王岩. 2019. 气候年景定量化评价方法[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2019.067
气候年景定量化评价方法
A quantitative method for assessment of annual climatic status
投稿时间:2018-12-03  修订日期:2019-03-06
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2019.067
中文关键词:  气候年景,定量化,评价模型
英文关键词:Climatic  status,Quantitative,Assessment  model
基金项目:
作者单位E-mail
邹燕 福建省气候中心 zy163zouyan@163.com 
伍红雨 广东省气候中心 wuhy@grmc.gov.cn 
林昕 福建省气候中心 eillinwood@163.com 
王岩 福建省气象宣传科普教育中心 wwwyan0509@163.com 
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中文摘要:
      [目的]气候年景评价是气候业务服务的重要产品—气候年公报的重要内容,其中评价方法是关键。旨在以福建省为例介绍一种计算简单、业务适用性、易推广的气候年景定量化评价指标体系。[资料和方法]基于福建省66个国家级气象站1961-2010年共50年逐日气温、降水观测数据和综合气象干旱指数(MCI)数据,主要采用百分位方法,[结果]在分别建立低温年景、高温年景、雨涝年景和气象干旱年景评价指标、等级标准和历史序列的基础上,构建了综合气候年景评价模型、等级标准和历史序列,[结论]实现了福建省低温、高温、雨涝、气象干旱年景及综合气候年景的定量化评价能力和历史可比性。通过业务应用和历史事件验证,显示了所建评价指标体系的合理性以及与历史重大事件的良好一致性。本方法可为汛期雨强、冬季低温强度、夏季高温强度等定量化评估提供参考,并可为进一步开展气候变化及异常年份环流背景分析奠定基础。
英文摘要:
      Assessment of the climatic status is important part of the Annual Climate Bulletin,which is a essential component of climate application and services, and in which assessment methods play a key role. Taking Fujian Province as an example ,a quantitative assessment index system of annual climatic status is proposed, which is simple, strong applicability and easy to be widely adopted. Based on the 50 year’s observational daily precipitation and temperature data and the meteorological drought composite index (MCI) data ranging from 1961 to 2010 of the 66 national observatories in Fujian Province, annual status assessment indexes of cold weather, hot weather, heavy rainfall, meteorological drought and then the combined climatic status, together with their grades and historical sample sequences were established, separately in which percentile is used. The ability of quantitative assessment of each of the four major statuses and the combined climatic status is achieved. The comparability of historical cases is also acquired. Through real application and verification of historical cases, rationality of this assessment and good consistency with big historical cases is shown. This method provides reference for quantitative assessment of intensity of rainy season, winter cold weather, summer hot weather and etc. It also builds foundation for further analysis of climate variation or atmosphere circulation in abnormal years.
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