张强,姚玉璧,李耀辉,黄建平,马柱国. 2020. 中国干旱事件成因和变化规律的研究进展与展望[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2020.032
中国干旱事件成因和变化规律的研究进展与展望
ZHANG Qiang1,2 YAO Yubi1LI Yaohui1 HUANG Jianping4 MA Zhuguo5 WANG Zhilan1 WANG Suping1WANG Ying1 ZHANG Yu13. Lanzhou Resources and Environment Vocational and Technical College, Lanzhou 730021, China;
投稿时间:2019-08-08  修订日期:2020-01-13
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2020.032
中文关键词:  干旱事件  形成机理  变化规律  风险特征  进展与展望
英文关键词:Drought events  Formation mechanism  Change rules  Risk characteristics  Progress and prospect
基金项目:国家自然科学基金
作者单位E-mail
张强 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所 zhangqiang@cma.gov.cn 
姚玉璧 兰州资源环境职业技术学院兰州 730021 yaoyubi@163.com 
李耀辉 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所 li-yaohui@163.com 
黄建平  hjp@lzu.edu.cn 
马柱国  mazhuguo@163.com 
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中文摘要:
      干旱是世界上危害最广泛、最严重的自然灾害之一,我国作为典型的季风气候区,受干旱灾害的影响尤为突出。国际上对干旱问题进行了大量研究,已逐渐由对干旱的定性和表象的认识,发展到干旱客观特征的定量认识和形成机理的深入揭示。我国自新中国成立以来,从只对一些重大干旱事件的零散研究到逐步与国际干旱研究的完全接轨, 在干旱研究方面取得了长足进展。但目前,对干旱研究取得的科学进展缺乏客观清晰的认识,对干旱研究的发展方向尚未充分洞察。本文在全面了解国际干旱研究现状的基础上,系统回顾了新中国成立以来我国干旱研究的历程,总结了我国干旱研究的重要进展,划分出了干旱事件的现象特征和时空分布、干旱形成机理及变化规律、干旱灾害风险和骤发性干旱研究兴起等我国干旱研究的四个主要发展阶段,并从干旱事件特征、干旱时空分布、干旱变化规律、干旱成因、干旱影响机制、干旱风险形成过程以及干旱对气候变暖的响应、骤发性干旱的特殊性等方面归纳凝练了我国干旱研究的重要成果。同时,结合干旱研究的国际前沿、热点问题和发展趋势,科学分析了我国干旱研究的不足和问题,提出了未来我国需要在加强典型干旱频发区综合性干旱科学试验研究的基础上,在干旱形成的多因子协同作用、陆-气相互作用对干旱形成发展的作用、骤发性干旱的判别及监测预测、各类干旱之间传递规律及其非一致性特征、关键影响期对农业干旱发展的作用、干旱对气候变暖响应的复杂性、干旱灾害风险的科学评估等六个重点科学问题上取得突破。该研究对我国干旱研究未来布局和规划及推动干旱研究取得新的突破有重要指导意义。
英文摘要:
      Drought is one of the most serious and extensive natural disasters in the world. As a typical monsoon climate area, China is particularly affected by drought disasters. A great deal of researches on drought have been carried out in the world, which has gradually been developed from the qualitative and presentative understanding to the quantitative understanding of the objective characteristics and the deep disclosure of the formation mechanism.Since the founding of New China, considerable progress has been made in the field of drought research, from scattered studies of only some major drought events to gradual integration with international drought studies. However, there is a lack of objective and clear understanding of the scientific progress of drought research and insufficient insight into the development direction of drought research.. Based on a comprehensive understanding of the current status of international drought research, this paper systematically reviews the history of drought research in China since the foundation of New China, summarizes the important progress of drought research in China, and divides the progress into four major stages: the phenomenon characteristics and spatial and temporal distribution of drought events, the drought formation mechanism and change rules, drought disaster risks, and the occurrence of flash drought. This paper also summarizes the important achievements of drought research in China in view of the characteristics of drought events, the spatial and temporal distribution of drought, the change rules of drought, the causes of drought, the influencing mechanism of drought, the formation process of drought risks, the response of drought to climate warming and the particularity of sudden drought. Moreover, in combination with the international leading and hotspot issues and development trend of drought research, this paper scientifically analyzes the shortages and problems of drought research in China, and proposes that in the future, China needs to make breakthroughs on six major scientific issues including the multi-factor synergetic effect on drought formation, the effect of land-atmosphere interaction on drought formation and development, the identification, monitoring and prediction of flash drought, the transmission rules and non-uniform characteristics among various types of drought, the effect of critical impacting period on agricultural drought development, the complexity of the drought response to climate warming, and the scientific assessment of drought disaster risks on the basis of strengthening the comprehensive drought science experiment research in typical frequent drought areas. This study is of great significance for guiding the future layout and planning of drought research and for promoting new breakthroughs in drought research in China.
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