赵益帆,李晓涵,彭新东. 2020. 全球非静力GRAPES_YY阴阳网格模式发展及其对梅雨锋降水模拟的性能检验[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2020.046
全球非静力GRAPES_YY阴阳网格模式发展及其对梅雨锋降水模拟的性能检验
The development of the GRAPES_YY Yin-Yang grid global non-hydrostatic model and performance verification to simulated Meiyu front precipitaion
投稿时间:2019-10-20  修订日期:2019-12-11
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2020.046
中文关键词:  GRAPES_YY全球非静力模式,阴阳网格,性能检验,模式预报偏差,梅雨锋降水
英文关键词:GRAPES_YY non-hydrostatic global model, Yin-Yang grid, performance verification, model forecasting bias, Meiyu front precipitation
基金项目:国家重点研发计划“重大自然灾害监测预警与防范”资助(2018YFC1507005)、国家自然科学基金(41575103)
作者单位E-mail
赵益帆 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室 zyf19951103@foxmail.com 
李晓涵 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室 lixh@cma.gov.cn 
彭新东 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室 pengxd@cma.gov.cn 
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中文摘要:
      [背景]GRAPES_YY是在球面准均匀阴阳网格动力框架基础上发展起来的全球非静力模式,已安装全套物理过程参数化方案,具备了中期天气预报能力。为检验模式性能,[资料和方法]以ERA-interim资料和逐小时地面融合降水产品为参考,对一个月(2018年6月中旬~7月中旬)批量试验在全球范围的环流和降水进行分析,并着重对7月4~7日发生在中国东部的一次梅雨天气过程进行分析,[目的]以期了解模式对多尺度天气系统的预报能力和误差分布特征。[结果]结果表明模式在改进上边界条件基础上有较好的稳定性,短期预报时效内对全球环流和降水刻画都较准确,模式24 h累积降水纬向平均成功再现了低纬和中纬的两个降水峰值,但对低纬对流性降水和中纬格点尺度降水预报偏强。模式成功模拟出7月4~6日中国东部梅雨雨带位置、走向及南北摆动,但对暴雨以上量级降水中心存在预报偏弱、位置偏北的问题。[结论]随预报时效延长,主要天气系统和湿度场由于湿物理过程影响偏差增大,但模拟结果整体上能正确反映主要天气系统的移动演变和降水分布。
英文摘要:
      GRAPES_YY is a global non-hydrostatic model developed on the basis of a spherical quasi-uniform Yin-Yang grid, which is currently capable of medium- range weather forecasting with a full physical parameterization package being implemented. To verify the model performances, we firstly analyzed global circulation and precipitation pattern from a series medium-range hindcasts during 2 June and 17 July 2018 referencing the ERA-interim data and Gauge-radar-satellite combined precipitation data in China as the “true”. We then highlight the analysis of a Meiyu process in East China during 4 to 7 July 2018 to confirm the model capability of predicting multi-scale weather systems and the corresponding error patterns. The model shows excellent numerical stability after an improvement of the upper boundary condition. The results display nice distribution of global circulation and precipitation within the first three-day prediction. The model successfully reproduced the two precipitation peaks at low latitude and mid-latitude regions in the 24-h accumulated precipitation. Over estimation of the convective precipitation in low latitude and large-scale precipitation in mid-latitude is also revealed. The model also described the right location, orientation and perturbation of the Meiyu rain belt in the case 4 to 7 July, even though weaker and northerly location bias is observed with the heavy rainfall center. With the extension of forecasting time, the synoptic systems and moisture fields display larger bias, but the synoptic systems and rain belts generally show their proper movement and evolution.
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