陈雪娇,刘奇俊. 2020. GRAPES全球模式云方案的诊断研究[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2020.066
GRAPES全球模式云方案的诊断研究
投稿时间:2020-03-23  修订日期:2020-07-14
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2020.066
中文关键词:  GRAPES全球预报系统  云微物理方案  诊断  评估,再分析资料
英文关键词:GRAPES_GFS,Cloud  Microphysics scheme,Diagnosis,Evaluation
基金项目:GYHY201506008
作者单位E-mail
陈雪娇 中国气象科学研究院 2453311943@qq.com 
刘奇俊 中国气象局国家气象中心 liuqj@cma.gov.cn 
摘要点击次数: 222
全文下载次数: 174
中文摘要:
      在对GRAPES全球预报系统(GRAPES_GFS)的预报性能进行诊断评估的基础上,对凝结(华)和蒸发等物理过程及对流卷出对云的影响过程进行改进和优化,旨在提高GRAPES_GFS云量及其特征量和降水的预报精确度。通过与欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)第五代全球再分析资料(ERA5)的对比,分析云方案改进前后云量、云含水量、柱含水量等云宏观、微观物理量,降水量、对外长波辐射(OLR)等基本物理量以及物理过程对温度和湿度的反馈倾向。结果显示,云方案改进后,GRAPES_GFS在热带地区液水预报增加,云系和水成物垂直分布更为合理;云量预报与ERA5预报结果更相近,特别是高云量预报的改进,使得地带OLR预报略有改进;低纬地区日平均总降水量略有增加,特别是热带地区格点尺度降水增加较为明显,缓解了热带区域大尺度格点降水偏少的现象。
英文摘要:
      This article diagnosed and evaluated the forecast performance of the GRAPES Global Forecasting System (GRAPES_GFS) by comparing to the fifth-generation ECMWF global climate and atmospheric reanalysis data (ERA5), and optimized the effects of convection on the cloud and physical processes such as condensation (sublimate) and evaporation. The research emphasizes: 1) cloud macro and micro physical quantities, such as cloud cover cloud water content, column cloud water content; 2) precipitation and external long-wave radiation (OLR); 3) the feedback tendency between the physical process and temperature and humidity. The results show that after the cloud scheme is improved, the liquid-water forecast amount of GRAPES_GFS has increased in tropical regions, and the vertical distribution of aquifers becomes more reasonable. The cloud forecast is more similar to the ERA5 forecast result, especially the improvement of high cloud forecast performance, which improves the OLR forecast characteristics and the situation of less cloud forecast is improved. The total precipitation in tropical areas increased slightly, especially the large-scale precipitation increase in the tropical areas was more obvious, which alleviated the phenomenon that the large-scale grids in the tropical areas had less precipitation.
查看全文   查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器
分享按钮