麻素红. 2020. 垂直分层加密和预报区域扩大对GRAPES_TYM台风预报的影响[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2020.067
垂直分层加密和预报区域扩大对GRAPES_TYM台风预报的影响
Impacts to GRAPES_TYM TC Prediction from increasing vertical level and enlarging integration domain
投稿时间:2020-03-24  修订日期:2020-07-05
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2020.067
中文关键词:  热带气旋 预报区域 垂直分辨率 强度预报
英文关键词:Tropical Cyclone Forecast domain Vertical resolution Intensity forecast
基金项目:国家重点研发计划资助(项目编号:2018YFC1506406);广东省科技计划协同创新与平台环境建设专项资金 (2018B020208004).
作者单位E-mail
麻素红 国家气象中心 mash@cma.gov.cn 
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中文摘要:
      为提升GRAPES_TYM对西北太平洋和南海热带气旋路径及强度的能力、增加GRAPES_TYM对北印度洋热带气旋的预报,2019年8月GRAPES_TYMV3.0投入业务运行。V3.0的模式垂直分层由V2.2的50层增加到68层;预报区域由覆盖西北太平洋、南海扩展到覆盖北印度洋。试验结果显示:模式垂直分层增加可以改进模式对强台风及超强台风的预报能力,减小平均路径预报误差、显著减小平均强度预报误差以及强度预报负偏差;模式预报区域扩大到覆盖北印度洋对平均路径误差和平均强度平均误差影响不显著,长时效预报比较敏感,如20°N以北的热带气旋120h预报路径。2016年-2018年的回算结果同NCEP-GFS和ECMWF的预报结果对比分析表明:GRAPES_TYMV3.0的平均路径误差与NCEP-GFS接近,同ECMWF相比误差较大;24h-96h强度预报误差要明显小于NCEP-GFS和ECMWF,NCEP-GFS和ECMWF对热带气旋强度预报存在明显的负偏差。
英文摘要:
      In order to further improve the performance in North West Pacific Ocean and South China Sea and provide products for North Indian Ocean, GRAPES_TYM was upgraded to V3.0 including increasing the vertical resolution from 50 to 68 and enlarging the integration domain to cover North Indian Ocean in August 2019. The results show that the increasing of vertical resolution could reduce the mean track errors of 72-120h and remarkable reduce the mean intensity errors of 24-96h through decreasing the negative bias of the severe Typhoon and super Typhoon; There are no significant differences of the mean track and intensity errors when the integration domain was expended to North Indian Ocean except the tracks to the north of 20°N are more sensitive to the integration domain. The comparative analysis of the retrospective results from 2016 to 2018 with the prediction results of NCEP-GFS and ECMWF shows that the average track error of GRAPES_TYMV3.0 is close to that of NCEP-GFS, and the error is larger than that of ECMWF; the intensity error is obviously smaller than NCEP-GFS and ECMWF. NCEP-GFS and ECMWF have bigger negative bias.
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