赵益帆,李晓涵,彭新东. 2020. GRAPES_YY模式发展及其对梅雨锋降水模拟的性能检验[J]. 气象学报, 78(4):623-635, doi:10.11676/qxxb2020.046
GRAPES_YY模式发展及其对梅雨锋降水模拟的性能检验
The development of the GRAPES_YY model and its performance verification for Meiyu frontal precipitation simulation
投稿时间:2019-10-24  修订日期:2020-04-01
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2020.046
中文关键词:  GRAPES_YY全球非静力模式  阴阳网格  性能检验  模式预报偏差  梅雨锋降水
英文关键词:GRAPES_YY global non-hydrostatic model  Yin-Yang grid  Performance verification  Model forecasting bias  Meiyu front
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目“重大自然灾害监测预警与防范”(2018YFC1507005)、国家自然科学基金项目(41575103)
作者单位E-mail
赵益帆 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室北京 100081  
李晓涵 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室北京 100081  
彭新东 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室北京 100081 pengxd@cma.gov.cn 
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中文摘要:
      GRAPES_YY是在球面准均匀阴阳网格动力框架基础上发展起来的全球非静力模式,目前已耦合全套物理过程参数化方案,具备了中期天气预报能力。为了解模式对环流和降水的实际预报效果,检验模式对多尺度天气系统的预报能力和误差分布特征,以ERA-interim资料和逐时地面融合降水产品为参考,对1个月(2018年6月中旬—7月中旬)批量试验结果和一次长江流域梅雨个例(7月4—7日)模拟结果进行分析。结果表明:在改进上边界条件基础上,模式有较好的稳定性,短期预报时效内对全球环流和降水刻画准确,模式24 h累计降水纬向平均成功再现了低纬度和中纬度地区的两个降水峰值,但对低纬度对流性降水和中纬度格点尺度降水预报偏强。其次,模式成功模拟出7月4—6日中国东部梅雨雨带位置、走向及南北摆动,整体上能正确反映主要天气系统的移动演变,但受分辨率限制以及湿物理过程影响,暴雨以上量级降水还存在强度预报偏弱、位置偏北的问题。GRAPES_YY模式模拟结果基本合理可信,对中低纬度梅雨锋降水的预报能力较GRAPES_GFS略有改善。
英文摘要:
      GRAPES_YY is a global non-hydrostatic model developed on the basis of a spherical quasi-uniform Yin-Yang grid, which is currently capable of forecasting medium-range weather with a full physical parameterization package being implemented. To verify the model performance and its capability of predicting multi-scale weather systems, especially the circulations, precipitation and corresponding error patterns, we first analyze a series of medium-range hindcast from 2 June to 17 July 2018, and then highlight the analysis of a Meiyu process in East China during 4—7 July 2018. The ERA-interim data and gauge-radar-satellite combined precipitation data in China are taken as the "true" situation. The model shows excellent numerical stability after the improvement of the upper boundary condition. The results display realistic distributions of global circulation and precipitation within the first three-day prediction. The model successfully reproduced the two 24 h accumulated precipitation peaks in the low-latitude and mid-latitude regions, respectively, although it overestimated convective precipitation in the low-latitudes and large-scale precipitation in the mid-latitudes. The model not only well described the location, orientation and north-south displacement of the Meiyu rain belt, but also realistically simulated the movement and evolution of the synoptic systems for the case occurred during 4—7 July. However, the simulated heavy rainfall center is weaker than observations and is located further north due to the limitation of resolution and inaccurate description of the wet physical process. In conclusion, the GRAPES_YY model on the Yin-Yang grid produces reasonable results. It demonstrates ability to predict precipitation associated with Meiyu fronts in the mid-latitude and the performance is slightly better than the original GRAPES_GFS model.
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