刘卫国,陶玥,周毓荃,党娟,谭超,高扬. 2021. 基于飞机真实轨迹的一次层状云催化的增雨效果及其作用机制的模拟研究[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2021.011
基于飞机真实轨迹的一次层状云催化的增雨效果及其作用机制的模拟研究
Simulation of Stratiform Cloud AgI Seeding Using Actual Aircraft Operating Track and Study on Rainfall Enhancement Effect and Seeding Mechanism
投稿时间:2020-06-09  修订日期:2020-10-07
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2021.011
中文关键词:  层状云,人工增雨效果,中尺度催化模式,飞机轨迹模拟,碘化银核化,微物理链条,动力效果
英文关键词:Stratiform Cloud, Rainfall Enhancement Effect, Mesoscale Seeding Model, Aircraft Track Simulation, AgI Nucleation, Microphysical Chain, Dynamic Effect
基金项目:
作者单位E-mail
刘卫国 中国气象科学研究院 liuwg@cma.gov.cn 
陶玥 中国气象科学研究院 taoyue@cma.gov.cn 
周毓荃 中国气象科学研究院 zhouyq@cma.gov.cn 
党娟 中国气象科学研究院 dangjuan@cma.gov.cn 
谭超 中国气象科学研究院 tanchao@cma.gov.cn 
高扬 中国气象科学研究院 yanggao@cma.gov.cn 
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中文摘要:
      层状云降水效率通常偏低,但往往具有较高的云水资源开发潜力,是人工增雨作业的重要对象。随着中国南方地区生态改善、水库增蓄、抗旱等社会需求的增加,针对这些地区降水云系的人工增雨研究和实践显得愈发必要。本文使用三维中尺度冷云催化模式,对2018年10月21日湖北省一次层状云飞机人工增雨作业过程进行了数值模拟研究。模式合理地模拟出了云和降水的主要宏微观特征,观测和模拟结果均显示作业云区具有较好的冷云催化条件,在此基础上,模式按照实际作业中的飞机播撒方式,完整地模拟了此次催化作业过程。数值模拟结果的分析表明:凝结冻结核化和凝华核化是碘化银催化剂的主要核化方式;90%以上碘化银粒子的局地活化比介于0.01%~2%之间,平均活化比则介于0.07%~0.27%之间;云系降水是由冷云降水和暖云降水两种机制共同作用的结果,催化作业使两种降水机制均有增强,增雨效果明显;催化后4小时,整个评估区内的累积净增雨量为2.12×108kg,局地增雨率介于-51.1%~306.7%之间,区域平均增雨率为8.1%;催化作业也使部分地区出现减雨,主要是由于催化中的潜热释放引起过冷层动力场扰动,一部分云区的上升气流减弱,从而导致降水粒子的成长减弱,地面出现减雨;在过冷云区,碘化银核化使冰晶浓度增加,导致冰晶-雪、雪-霰的转化过程增强,雪霰粒子总量增加,更多的雪霰粒子从冷区落入暖区,在暖区上层产生更多的大雨滴,从而使暖区的云雨碰并过程增强,最终地面降水增加,这是此次催化作业导致增雨的主要微物理链条。
英文摘要:
      Stratiform cloud precipitation efficiency is usually low, has a high potential for the development and utilization of cloud water resources, so it is a class of important object of precipitation enhancement. With the increasing of ecological improvement, reservoir increasing the storage, drought resistance and other social demands in the south of China, it is more and more necessary to research the technology and mechanism of cloud seeding for stratiform cloud precipitation system in these areas. In this paper, a three-dimensional mesoscale cold cloud seeding model was used to simulate the stratiform cloud system rainfall process and silver iodide (AgI) seeding operation by aircraft for rainfall enhancement in Hubei province of China on October 21, 2018. The main macro and micro characteristics of cloud and rainfall was reasonably simulated by the model, and both observation data and simulation results show favorable cloud condition for seeding AgI in aircraft operation area. On this basis, the whole aircraft seeding operation process based on actual flight trajectory and seeding information was simulated. The numerical simulation results show that condensation-freezing nucleation and deposition nucleation are main nucleation modes of AgI during the seeding operation. The local activation ratio of more than 90% of AgI ice nuclei ranged from 0.01% to 2%, and the average value of AgI activation ratio was between 0.07% and 0.27%. The rainfall is the result of combined action of cold cloud precipitation mechanism and warm cloud precipitation mechanism, and seeding operation enhances the action of both precipitation mechanism and achieves obvious rainfall enhancement effect. Four hours after the start of seeding operation, the accumulated rainfall amount in entire evaluation area increased by 2.12×108kg with 8.1% regional average rate of rainfall enhancement, and the local values of the relative rainfall enhancement by seeding are between -51.1% and 306.7%. Since the dynamic field disturbances caused by seeding in the supercooled cloud region, which leads to weakened updraft in some region. As a result, the growth of precipitation particles was weakened and rainfall was reduced in the above region. Seeding AgI in supercooled cloud region made the ice crystal particles concentration increased, and the conversion processes of ice crystals into snow and snow into graupel were enhanced. And then snow and graupel particles increase, more snow and graupel particles fell into the warm region of cloud, and more larger raindrops are generated in the upper layer of the warm region, which enhanced the collision-coalescence process between raindrops and cloud droplets in warm region, and finally the rainfall increases. The above processes formed a main microphysical chain of rainfall enhancement by AgI seeding together.
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